Fun with Iranian Election Protests and the Future of Iran and the Middle East
It’s been a while since I was an active blogger.. and I kinda hate that I’m not blogging so much these days. Bad Matt!!! So.. tonight.. I’ll try and write something and post it… Something where I don’t bother to worry about any of the SEO stuff… or the.. how to write a good blog post stuff.. stuff from a strategic point of view.. Now.. I’m just going to spout off.. and as near as I can tell.. a number of the folks whom are often given to reading this blog.. well.. they seem to dig that kinda thing.. So here we go.
I have a number of posts in draft form.. waiting to be posted.. I never know if I’ll ever post them… but.. because they are there, I don’t want to talk about what’s in them.. even if what’s in them is the sorta thing I find myself thinking about most.
Err, maybe I could talk about Iran or something?
This is one of those subjects that.. I feel the need to make a major post on.. which are the prime candidates for never getting posted.. never finished.. but screw it, lets me throw some stuff at you…
Some points to consider
- Even evil dictators have to operate inside of political realities.
- On the “is twitter going to topple the Iranian government?” All the important social / political movements in history started at the grass roots level.. they started by people networking.. one way or another.. tools like twitter and other social networking tools are, to use Pentagon terminology ”force multipliers.”
Ok.. so that’s only two points.. but for other points we have to deep dive..
Gandhi believed that none violence would work even against Hitler. I think he was crazy on this point or.. well.. his point is a complicated one to take on if we are to talk about it seriously. But the notion of none violent protest going on in Iran.. versus the “lets go fly some plains into buildings” idea.. if none violence where to work in this instance.. I believe it is possible that we could see ripple effects throughout the middle east.
On Twittering the Revolution
I’ve heard some commentary as of late, about.. well folks on twitter have been turning there avatars green to show there support for the Iranian people and protesters. The commentary is suggesting that “it isn’t going to do or make any difference.” What these people are missing is.. at least for some of us who’ve done things to our avatars.. we are reacting to watching Iranian police beat the crap out of crowds.. our hearts cried out to them.. so our avatars are really a sign of a metaphysical realization.. that we are one people.
Since 9/11 there’s been a heightening of a kind of racism against people from the middle east.. fundamentally racism is an inability to see the human in the other. I think most Americans.. understanding of the world is not terribly sophisticated.. we’ve heard that the Iranian government hates America, that the people love us.. but I’m not sure if we ever truly believed it.. after all they’re all Middle Easterners and don’t they all hate us?
So I think the avatar thing.. does send a powerful message.. if nothing else, that we don’t hate Iranians.. And it represents a kind of revelation about our larger world.. Which I frankly think is important for the future of America.
Should Obama do more?
I think the “should Obama do more” debate is a fundamentally stupid debate. I think most of it is lead by a certain fraction of the republican party.. a party that’s ready to grab onto any straws it can find.. If there is any truth to the idea that Obama should do more.. they’ve managed hide it.. make it look like the only folks who would think that have a political axe to grind. But what is really stupid is the amount of attention this question has been given.. and not really the question its self.
The story coming out of the Obama administration is that they don’t want to give the Iranian government something to blame us for.. to use as an excuse.. as a way of twisting the truth.. in there own desperation to hold onto power. Again, I think this is a story that’s told so much that.. well.. its not quite as true, I don’t think, as you would think for how loudly we are being told this. Sure, its true but.. lets face facts.. the Iranian government will find excuses no matter what.. and we shouldn’t let a fear of that sorta thing get in the way of our.. pursuit of our national interests.. or of.. doing whatever we can do.. But of course we should be careful.
Ok Matt, what can Obama do?
I think this is an Iranian revolution.. I don’t think there’s a hell of a lot anyone can do who’s outside Iran.. accept show our support.. If anything.. as I said earlier.. even evil dictators have to operate in political realities. I imagine if you’re Obama you want to follow the situation very closely.. using whatever intelligence assets we might have.. to do our best to understand the situation and motivations of the folks in power in Iran. I think whatever we can do is going to have to do with what sorts revelations might flow this meditation.
Generally speaking.. I’d probably advice against taking an overly aggressive stance.. as that could potentially galvanize the political forces in Iran into a nationalistic direction which could actually work against the protesters. So.. you know, its complicated.
Will we see a revolution in Iran?
I think what we are seeing are intrenched political tensions.. its a warning sign for the folk in power in Iran to loosen up.. The country wants to go in a “loosen up” sorta direction… So far it would seem the Iranian government is going in the opposite direction.. in reaction to the protests.. All that can really do is heat up the situation.. if things get too hot.. you got your self a revolution.. and to some extent we are already seeing this in the form of various power struggles.
If the Iranian government were to loosen up a little.. if say the investigation into the election proved not to be a farce.. if the election its self proved not to be a farce.. if they did the whole thing for real this time.. and power changed hands on the electoral sorta level.. well.. the lead cleric fellow, it seems to me, could stay in power. But the more they appear to be corrupt, lying, basically evil.. abusing there people.. tyrannical.. all this does nothing more then keep the heat on them.. welcome to the power of none violent protesting.. basically.
And of course now Iran has the spot line on them, right? This is more of why I don’t think Obama has to worry too much about if the Iranian rulers blame us.. lets face it, they are systematically destroying there credibility.. and while a giant spot light is on them!
I do think that there’s no escaping, in the long term, change coming to Iran. I think the force for change in Iran is a pretty unescapable reality. But I don’t know if we’ll see this change happening inside of the next 6 months, or the next 6 years, or more.. If nothing else, eventually.. the generation who we find protesting.. will come to be the generation in power.. when that happens.. you will see a different Iran.
Further Reading
Steven Streight, aka @vaspersthegrate on twitter, did a recent post on the roll Twitter is playing, Twitter versus mainstream media, and all that good stuff: Twitter, Iran, Citizen Intelligence Agents.
The Washington Post did a thing on Iran Elections: A Twitter Revolution?
The Berkman Center at Harvard has been looking at the roll cell phones and the internet have been playing in the Iran demonstrations, along with what the Iranian government has been trying to do to censor this sorta thing.. and this whole story.
Perhaps my current favorite podcast is Media Hacks.. Mitch Joel is currently kicking around the idea of writing a book on “the great unteathering” which is to say the migration away from folks working on at a terminal.. a desktop computer of some sort.. to going mobile.. to a world where internet connectivity is everywhere.. ramifications of the rise of the iPhone and all that.. Something that is likely to be next great disruption.. In episode 12 of Media Hacks, how mobile is changing the way people connect and market is looked at.. and of course Iran comes up in the conversation. I think this adds some good texture to this conversation.
Thomas Barnett, a kind of Pentagon war planner, did a post.. though shorter then mine, sorta saying some of the same sorts of things I’m saying… Regarding Obama’s increasingly “tougher stance”.. close by on his blog are some of his reactions to various journalists coverage of the Iranian election protests.
Barnett is also interesting for talking about… well, what do about countries like Iraq.. or whatever.. what should be done, how we need to change how we doing things.. here’s his TED talk on the subject: